Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Peru June GDP Grows At 11.5% Rate

In June, GDP expanded by 11.5%y/y, in line with consensus. This represented an acceleration from the 7.3%y/y seen in May. All sectors presented recovery on the y/y basis with special highlight to commerce (up from 9.6%y/y to 18.9%y/y) and agricultural (up from 3.6%y/y to 10.8%y/y). Peruvian GDP seems to have expanded by something like a seasonally adjusted 1.9% month on month pushing the 3 months average up from -0.2%m/m to +0.8%m/m. In Q2, it looks like GDP rose 1.1% q/q, down from the 2.1% q/q seen in Q1 and the 2.9 q/q in Q4 2007. Accumulated over the last 12months, GDP grew around 9.8% y/y in Q2, up from the 9.1% in Q1 and still above trend GDP of 8.2% y/y.

The 3month average of the unemployment rate ending in July rose from 7.9% to 8.1%. Such dynamics do not reflect seasonal patterns that usually show a drop in the unemployment rate. The employment level rose by a modest 0.9%y/y, down from the 2.0%y/y in June.


Diego said...

Hola Edward,

¿te importaría actualizar esta página? No es fácil encontrar análisis sobre Perú...

Me gusta cómo relacionas la demografía con el crecimiento económico; sería muy interesante que añadieras al análisis el componente educativo. En países como Perú, es de esperar que el número de ingenieros sea un vector fundamental de crecimiento económico, ¿no? (Y, en parte, también en España).

Un saludo,


Edward Hugh said...

Hello Diego,

Thanks for the comment. I haven't forgotten Peru. The crisis is just giving me too much work and too much to think about at the moment.

Don't worry.

I will be back,